Individual modeling teams provided probabilistic projections for each future week, characterizing uncertainty with quantiles. All scenarios included the spread of the B.1.1.7 variant, with the assumption that it was 50% more transmissible than were previously circulating SARS-CoV-2 variants ( 3, 4). For each NPI scenario, teams estimated a level of NPI adherence in March 2021 and then implemented a linear decrease of that level beginning in April to be 50% or 80% lower in September 2021. Four scenarios were considered in each model: high vaccination with moderate NPI use, high vaccination with low NPI use, low vaccination with moderate NPI use, and low vaccination with low NPI use ( 4) ( Table) Vaccination scenarios took into account vaccine effectiveness (VE), weekly state-specific data on COVID-19 vaccination rates, and age- and risk-specific vaccine prioritization (e.g., older adults and health care workers) VE estimates were based on protection against clinical disease in randomized clinical trials § parameters for effectiveness against infection and transmission were determined by each modeling team ( 4).
Teams each developed a model to project weekly reported cases, hospitalizations, and deaths, both nationally and by jurisdiction (50 states and the District of Columbia), for each scenario, using data from the Johns Hopkins Center for Systems Science and Engineering Coronavirus Resource Center and federal databases ( 2, 5). High vaccination rates and compliance with public health prevention measures are essential to control the COVID-19 pandemic and to prevent surges in hospitalizations and deaths in the coming months.įollowing previous short-term disease forecasting efforts, the COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub ( 4) convened six modeling teams in an open call to provide long-term, 6-month (April–September 2021) COVID-19 projections in the United States using data available through Ma( 2, 5). A sharp decline in cases was projected by July 2021, with a faster decline in the high-vaccination scenarios. Among the four scenarios, an accelerated decline in NPI adherence (which encapsulates NPI mandates and population behavior) was shown to undermine vaccination-related gains over the subsequent 2–3 months and, in combination with increased transmissibility of new variants, could lead to surges in cases, hospitalizations, and deaths. To provide long-term projections of potential trends in COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, and deaths, COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub teams used a multiple-model approach comprising six models to assess the potential course of COVID-19 in the United States across four scenarios with different vaccination coverage rates and effectiveness estimates and strength and implementation of nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) (public health policies, such as physical distancing and masking) over a 6-month period (April–September 2021) using data available through Ma( 4). This increase coincided with the spread of more transmissible variants of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, including B.1.1.7 ( 1, 3) and relaxation of COVID-19 prevention strategies such as those for businesses, large-scale gatherings, and educational activities. COVID-19 incidence during January–March 2021, increases occurred in several jurisdictions ( 1, 2) despite the rapid rollout of a large-scale vaccination program. Johansson, PhD 14 Katriona Shea, PhD 1 ,† Justin Lessler, PhD 3 ,† ( View author affiliations) View suggested citationĪfter a period of rapidly declining U.S. Slayton, PhD 14 Matthew Biggerstaff, ScD 14 Michael A. Davis 11 Kunpeng Mu 11 Xinyue Xiong, MSc 11 Ana Pastore y Piontti, PhD 11 Alessandro Vespignani, PhD 11 Ajitesh Srivastava, PhD 12 Przemyslaw Porebski, PhD 13 Srinivasan Venkatramanan, PhD 13 Aniruddha Adiga, PhD 13 Bryan Lewis, PhD 13 Brian Klahn, MS 13 Joseph Outten 13 James Schlitt, PhD 13 Patrick Corbett 13 Pyrros Alexander Telionis, PhD 13 Lijing Wang, MS 13 Akhil Sai Peddireddy 13 Benjamin Hurt, MS 13 Jiangzhuo Chen, PhD 13 Anil Vullikanti, PhD 13 Madhav Marathe, PhD 13 Jessica M.
Keegan, PhD 9 Dean Karlen, PhD 10 Matteo Chinazzi, PhD 11 Jessica T. Meredith, PhD 3 Javier Perez-Saez, PhD 3 Lindsay T. Grantz 3 Joshua Kaminsky, MS 3 Stephen A. Mullany, PhD 7 Kaitlin Rainwater-Lovett, PhD 7 Joseph C. Freddy Obrecht, PhD 7 Laura Asher MPS 7 Cash Costello, MS 7 Michael Kelbaugh 7 Shelby Wilson, PhD 7 Lauren Shin 7 Molly E. Reich, PhD 5 Lucie Contamin, MS 6 John Levander 6 Jessica Salerno, MPH 6 Wilbert van Panhuis, PhD 6 Matt Kinsey, PhD 7 Kate Tallaksen, MS 7 R. Borchering, PhD 1* Cécile Viboud, PhD 2* Emily Howerton 1 Claire P.
0 kommentar(er)
